Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$217.94 - $394.95$291.65
Multi-Stage$170.46 - $186.05$178.11
Blended Fair Value$234.88
Current Price$323.58
Upside-27.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.23%-6.01%0.390.000.000.001.182.191.911.591.261.02
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-45.84%14.25%20.58%26.25%23.65%40.84%
Dividend Yield--0.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.38%6.80%1.66%1.35%1.28%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,071.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)659.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,412.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)814.20508.88305.33
Cash Retained (M)3,412.003,412.003,412.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-814.20-508.88-305.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,597.802,903.133,106.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)275.50275.50275.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.4310.5411.28
LTM Dividend per Share2.392.392.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.4310.5411.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.8212.9313.67
WACC / Discount Rate11.12%11.12%11.12%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Fair Value$217.94$291.65$394.95
Upside / Downside-32.65%-9.87%22.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,071.004,331.514,608.694,903.605,217.395,551.265,717.80
Payout Ratio16.19%30.95%45.71%60.48%75.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)659.001,340.612,106.752,965.463,925.444,996.145,288.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.12%11.12%11.12%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Year 1 PV (M)1,195.151,206.491,217.83
Year 2 PV (M)1,674.391,706.321,738.54
Year 3 PV (M)2,101.162,161.532,223.05
Year 4 PV (M)2,479.572,575.022,673.20
Year 5 PV (M)2,813.492,949.513,090.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,697.5538,471.7840,313.99
Equity Value (M)46,961.3249,070.6651,257.36
Shares Outstanding (M)275.50275.50275.50
Fair Value$170.46$178.11$186.05
Upside / Downside-47.32%-44.95%-42.50%

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