DDM Analysis: MT.AS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$24.11 - $35.02	$29.40
Multi-Stage	$52.42 - $57.81	$55.06
Blended Fair Value	$42.23
Current Price	$31.67
Upside	33.35%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	14.12%	-1.52%	0.51	0.48	0.43	0.40	0.23	0.26	0.28	0.18	0.08	0.54
YoY Growth	-	-	6.50%	11.14%	6.41%	72.38%	-10.84%	-7.73%	56.03%	131.15%	-85.34%	-9.17%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.77%	1.73%	1.42%	1.24%	0.81%	2.74%	1.32%	0.57%	0.31%	3.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,585.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	449.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,136.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	517.00	323.13	193.88
Cash Retained (M)	2,136.00	2,136.00	2,136.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-517.00	-323.13	-193.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,619.00	1,812.88	1,942.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	775.75	775.75	775.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.09	2.34	2.50
LTM Dividend per Share	0.58	0.58	0.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.09	2.34	2.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.67	2.92	3.08
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	-3.52%	-2.52%	-1.52%
Fair Value	$24.11	$29.40	$35.02
Upside / Downside	-23.87%	-7.17%	10.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,585.00	2,519.89	2,456.41	2,394.54	2,334.22	2,275.42	2,343.68
Payout Ratio	17.37%	31.90%	46.42%	60.95%	75.47%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	449.00	803.73	1,140.31	1,459.42	1,761.73	2,047.88	2,167.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	-3.52%	-2.52%	-1.52%
Year 1 PV (M)	742.41	750.11	757.80
Year 2 PV (M)	972.95	993.23	1,013.71
Year 3 PV (M)	1,150.23	1,186.37	1,223.25
Year 4 PV (M)	1,282.56	1,336.57	1,392.26
Year 5 PV (M)	1,377.14	1,450.01	1,525.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)	35,140.15	36,999.39	38,936.50
Equity Value (M)	40,665.45	42,715.66	44,849.44
Shares Outstanding (M)	775.75	775.75	775.75
Fair Value	$52.42	$55.06	$57.81
Upside / Downside	65.52%	73.87%	82.55%

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ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT.AS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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