Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.11 - $35.02$29.40
Multi-Stage$52.42 - $57.81$55.06
Blended Fair Value$42.23
Current Price$31.67
Upside33.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.12%-1.52%0.510.480.430.400.230.260.280.180.080.54
YoY Growth--6.50%11.14%6.41%72.38%-10.84%-7.73%56.03%131.15%-85.34%-9.17%
Dividend Yield--1.77%1.73%1.42%1.24%0.81%2.74%1.32%0.57%0.31%3.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,585.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)449.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,136.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)517.00323.13193.88
Cash Retained (M)2,136.002,136.002,136.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-517.00-323.13-193.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,619.001,812.881,942.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)775.75775.75775.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.092.342.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.092.342.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.672.923.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate-3.52%-2.52%-1.52%
Fair Value$24.11$29.40$35.02
Upside / Downside-23.87%-7.17%10.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,585.002,519.892,456.412,394.542,334.222,275.422,343.68
Payout Ratio17.37%31.90%46.42%60.95%75.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)449.00803.731,140.311,459.421,761.732,047.882,167.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate-3.52%-2.52%-1.52%
Year 1 PV (M)742.41750.11757.80
Year 2 PV (M)972.95993.231,013.71
Year 3 PV (M)1,150.231,186.371,223.25
Year 4 PV (M)1,282.561,336.571,392.26
Year 5 PV (M)1,377.141,450.011,525.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,140.1536,999.3938,936.50
Equity Value (M)40,665.4542,715.6644,849.44
Shares Outstanding (M)775.75775.75775.75
Fair Value$52.42$55.06$57.81
Upside / Downside65.52%73.87%82.55%

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