DDM Analysis: L3H.F

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$23.23 - $32.63	$27.90
Multi-Stage	$62.67 - $69.13	$65.83
Blended Fair Value	$46.86
Current Price	$70.99
Upside	-33.98%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-10.62%	-0.85%	2.30	2.22	1.96	1.66	1.97	4.03	4.15	2.88	2.56	2.48
YoY Growth	-	-	3.28%	13.34%	18.42%	-15.77%	-51.15%	-3.04%	44.11%	12.40%	3.28%	-0.78%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.12%	3.21%	3.41%	3.02%	5.02%	11.63%	6.55%	4.54%	4.87%	5.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	14,599.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	8,504.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,094.93

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,919.81	1,824.88	1,094.93
Cash Retained (M)	6,094.93	6,094.93	6,094.93
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,919.81	-1,824.88	-1,094.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,175.13	4,270.05	5,000.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,775.19	3,775.19	3,775.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.84	1.13	1.32
LTM Dividend per Share	2.25	2.25	2.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.84	1.13	1.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.09	3.38	3.58
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	-5.79%	-4.79%	-3.79%
Fair Value	$23.23	$27.90	$32.63
Upside / Downside	-67.28%	-60.70%	-54.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	14,599.04	13,899.94	13,234.31	12,600.57	11,997.17	11,422.66	11,765.34
Payout Ratio	58.25%	64.60%	70.95%	77.30%	83.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	8,504.10	8,979.48	9,389.84	9,740.29	10,035.66	10,280.39	10,882.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	-5.79%	-4.79%	-3.79%
Year 1 PV (M)	8,322.61	8,410.95	8,499.29
Year 2 PV (M)	8,066.30	8,238.44	8,412.41
Year 3 PV (M)	7,755.26	8,004.84	8,259.72
Year 4 PV (M)	7,405.90	7,725.38	8,055.09
Year 5 PV (M)	7,031.54	7,412.72	7,810.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)	197,997.42	208,731.03	219,925.18
Equity Value (M)	236,579.02	248,523.37	260,961.95
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,775.19	3,775.19	3,775.19
Fair Value	$62.67	$65.83	$69.13
Upside / Downside	-11.72%	-7.27%	-2.63%

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Shell plc (L3H.F)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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