Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shell plc (L3H.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.23 - $32.63$27.90
Multi-Stage$62.67 - $69.13$65.83
Blended Fair Value$46.86
Current Price$70.99
Upside-33.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.62%-0.85%2.302.221.961.661.974.034.152.882.562.48
YoY Growth--3.28%13.34%18.42%-15.77%-51.15%-3.04%44.11%12.40%3.28%-0.78%
Dividend Yield--3.12%3.21%3.41%3.02%5.02%11.63%6.55%4.54%4.87%5.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,599.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,504.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,094.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,919.811,824.881,094.93
Cash Retained (M)6,094.936,094.936,094.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,919.81-1,824.88-1,094.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,175.134,270.055,000.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,775.193,775.193,775.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.841.131.32
LTM Dividend per Share2.252.252.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.841.131.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.093.383.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate-5.79%-4.79%-3.79%
Fair Value$23.23$27.90$32.63
Upside / Downside-67.28%-60.70%-54.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,599.0413,899.9413,234.3112,600.5711,997.1711,422.6611,765.34
Payout Ratio58.25%64.60%70.95%77.30%83.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,504.108,979.489,389.849,740.2910,035.6610,280.3910,882.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate-5.79%-4.79%-3.79%
Year 1 PV (M)8,322.618,410.958,499.29
Year 2 PV (M)8,066.308,238.448,412.41
Year 3 PV (M)7,755.268,004.848,259.72
Year 4 PV (M)7,405.907,725.388,055.09
Year 5 PV (M)7,031.547,412.727,810.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)197,997.42208,731.03219,925.18
Equity Value (M)236,579.02248,523.37260,961.95
Shares Outstanding (M)3,775.193,775.193,775.19
Fair Value$62.67$65.83$69.13
Upside / Downside-11.72%-7.27%-2.63%

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