DDM Analysis: DPNS.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$138.45 - $191.99	$165.31
Multi-Stage	$397.89 - $440.52	$418.76
Blended Fair Value	$292.04
Current Price	$304.00
Upside	-3.93%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.88%	-6.19%	9.66	14.48	14.24	0.00	2.75	5.51	2.74	5.54	4.57	13.71
YoY Growth	-	-	-33.33%	1.72%	0.00%	-100.00%	-50.01%	100.78%	-50.49%	21.25%	-66.67%	-25.01%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.64%	3.34%	3.65%	0.00%	0.99%	2.84%	0.84%	1.58%	1.15%	4.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	8,314.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,598.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,716.20

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,662.90	1,039.32	623.59
Cash Retained (M)	6,716.20	6,716.20	6,716.20
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,662.90	-1,039.32	-623.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5,053.30	5,676.89	6,092.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	331.13	331.13	331.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share	15.26	17.14	18.40
LTM Dividend per Share	4.83	4.83	4.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share	15.26	17.14	18.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	20.09	21.97	23.23
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	-7.01%	-6.01%	-5.01%
Fair Value	$138.45	$165.31	$191.99
Upside / Downside	-54.46%	-45.62%	-36.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	8,314.52	7,815.13	7,345.74	6,904.53	6,489.83	6,100.03	6,283.04
Payout Ratio	19.22%	33.38%	47.53%	61.69%	75.84%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,598.32	2,608.58	3,491.72	4,259.36	4,922.19	5,490.03	5,811.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	-7.01%	-6.01%	-5.01%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,423.63	2,449.70	2,475.76
Year 2 PV (M)	3,014.15	3,079.32	3,145.19
Year 3 PV (M)	3,416.12	3,527.51	3,641.30
Year 4 PV (M)	3,667.83	3,828.16	3,993.69
Year 5 PV (M)	3,800.92	4,009.73	4,227.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)	115,429.01	121,770.20	128,387.08
Equity Value (M)	131,751.66	138,664.62	145,870.63
Shares Outstanding (M)	331.13	331.13	331.13
Fair Value	$397.89	$418.76	$440.52
Upside / Downside	30.88%	37.75%	44.91%

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PT Duta Pertiwi Nusantara Tbk (DPNS.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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