Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT Duta Pertiwi Nusantara Tbk (DPNS.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$138.45 - $191.99$165.31
Multi-Stage$397.89 - $440.52$418.76
Blended Fair Value$292.04
Current Price$304.00
Upside-3.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.88%-6.19%9.6614.4814.240.002.755.512.745.544.5713.71
YoY Growth---33.33%1.72%0.00%-100.00%-50.01%100.78%-50.49%21.25%-66.67%-25.01%
Dividend Yield--4.64%3.34%3.65%0.00%0.99%2.84%0.84%1.58%1.15%4.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,314.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,598.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,716.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,662.901,039.32623.59
Cash Retained (M)6,716.206,716.206,716.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,662.90-1,039.32-623.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,053.305,676.896,092.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)331.13331.13331.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share15.2617.1418.40
LTM Dividend per Share4.834.834.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share15.2617.1418.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend20.0921.9723.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-7.01%-6.01%-5.01%
Fair Value$138.45$165.31$191.99
Upside / Downside-54.46%-45.62%-36.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,314.527,815.137,345.746,904.536,489.836,100.036,283.04
Payout Ratio19.22%33.38%47.53%61.69%75.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,598.322,608.583,491.724,259.364,922.195,490.035,811.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-7.01%-6.01%-5.01%
Year 1 PV (M)2,423.632,449.702,475.76
Year 2 PV (M)3,014.153,079.323,145.19
Year 3 PV (M)3,416.123,527.513,641.30
Year 4 PV (M)3,667.833,828.163,993.69
Year 5 PV (M)3,800.924,009.734,227.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)115,429.01121,770.20128,387.08
Equity Value (M)131,751.66138,664.62145,870.63
Shares Outstanding (M)331.13331.13331.13
Fair Value$397.89$418.76$440.52
Upside / Downside30.88%37.75%44.91%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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