DDM Analysis: AZN.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$255.24 - $1,210.67	$560.04
Multi-Stage	$140.68 - $153.75	$147.09
Blended Fair Value	$353.56
Current Price	$138.96
Upside	154.44%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.20%	2.77%	2.97	2.87	2.80	2.47	2.29	2.30	2.23	2.25	2.28	2.23
YoY Growth	-	-	3.30%	2.68%	13.17%	7.95%	-0.56%	3.10%	-0.99%	-1.18%	2.15%	-0.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.04%	2.16%	2.02%	1.86%	2.29%	2.57%	2.76%	3.28%	3.70%	3.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	9,508.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,971.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,537.48

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,901.70	1,188.56	713.14
Cash Retained (M)	4,537.48	4,537.48	4,537.48
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,901.70	-1,188.56	-713.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,635.78	3,348.92	3,824.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,560.75	1,560.75	1,560.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.69	2.15	2.45
LTM Dividend per Share	3.19	3.19	3.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.69	2.15	2.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.87	5.33	5.64
WACC / Discount Rate	7.43%	7.43%	7.43%
Growth Rate	5.42%	6.42%	7.42%
Fair Value	$255.24	$560.04	$1,210.67
Upside / Downside	83.68%	303.02%	771.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	9,508.48	10,118.67	10,768.03	11,459.06	12,194.43	12,976.99	13,366.30
Payout Ratio	52.28%	59.82%	67.37%	74.91%	82.46%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,971.00	6,053.37	7,254.18	8,584.19	10,055.03	11,679.29	12,363.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.43%	7.43%	7.43%
Growth Rate	5.42%	6.42%	7.42%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,581.74	5,634.69	5,687.64
Year 2 PV (M)	6,167.85	6,285.43	6,404.11
Year 3 PV (M)	6,730.04	6,923.39	7,120.41
Year 4 PV (M)	7,268.99	7,548.76	7,836.53
Year 5 PV (M)	7,785.39	8,161.73	8,552.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	186,029.08	195,021.52	204,358.41
Equity Value (M)	219,563.10	229,575.52	239,959.57
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,560.75	1,560.75	1,560.75
Fair Value	$140.68	$147.09	$153.75
Upside / Downside	1.24%	5.85%	10.64%

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AstraZeneca PLC (AZN.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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