Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AstraZeneca PLC (AZN.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$255.24 - $1,210.67$560.04
Multi-Stage$140.68 - $153.75$147.09
Blended Fair Value$353.56
Current Price$138.96
Upside154.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.20%2.77%2.972.872.802.472.292.302.232.252.282.23
YoY Growth--3.30%2.68%13.17%7.95%-0.56%3.10%-0.99%-1.18%2.15%-0.99%
Dividend Yield--2.04%2.16%2.02%1.86%2.29%2.57%2.76%3.28%3.70%3.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,508.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,971.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,537.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,901.701,188.56713.14
Cash Retained (M)4,537.484,537.484,537.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,901.70-1,188.56-713.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,635.783,348.923,824.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,560.751,560.751,560.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.692.152.45
LTM Dividend per Share3.193.193.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.692.152.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.875.335.64
WACC / Discount Rate7.43%7.43%7.43%
Growth Rate5.42%6.42%7.42%
Fair Value$255.24$560.04$1,210.67
Upside / Downside83.68%303.02%771.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,508.4810,118.6710,768.0311,459.0612,194.4312,976.9913,366.30
Payout Ratio52.28%59.82%67.37%74.91%82.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,971.006,053.377,254.188,584.1910,055.0311,679.2912,363.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.43%7.43%7.43%
Growth Rate5.42%6.42%7.42%
Year 1 PV (M)5,581.745,634.695,687.64
Year 2 PV (M)6,167.856,285.436,404.11
Year 3 PV (M)6,730.046,923.397,120.41
Year 4 PV (M)7,268.997,548.767,836.53
Year 5 PV (M)7,785.398,161.738,552.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)186,029.08195,021.52204,358.41
Equity Value (M)219,563.10229,575.52239,959.57
Shares Outstanding (M)1,560.751,560.751,560.75
Fair Value$140.68$147.09$153.75
Upside / Downside1.24%5.85%10.64%

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