DDM Analysis: 603950.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.58 - $14.53	$11.91
Multi-Stage	$19.50 - $21.47	$20.46
Blended Fair Value	$16.18
Current Price	$36.86
Upside	-56.09%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-25.17%	0.00%	0.09	0.06	0.35	0.07	0.96	0.38	0.15	0.42	0.02	0.29
YoY Growth	-	-	49.33%	-82.89%	414.83%	-92.96%	153.50%	156.64%	-65.02%	1,791.19%	-92.24%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.35%	0.35%	2.39%	0.60%	6.19%	2.33%	0.91%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	349.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	93.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)	255.59

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	69.86	43.67	26.20
Cash Retained (M)	255.59	255.59	255.59
(-) Cash Required (M)	-69.86	-43.67	-26.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)	185.73	211.93	229.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	317.06	317.06	317.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.59	0.67	0.72
LTM Dividend per Share	0.30	0.30	0.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.59	0.67	0.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.88	0.96	1.02
WACC / Discount Rate	7.02%	7.02%	7.02%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$9.58	$11.91	$14.53
Upside / Downside	-74.01%	-67.70%	-60.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	349.32	345.83	342.37	338.95	335.56	332.20	342.17
Payout Ratio	26.83%	39.47%	52.10%	64.73%	77.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	93.73	136.48	178.37	219.41	259.61	298.98	316.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.02%	7.02%	7.02%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	126.24	127.53	128.82
Year 2 PV (M)	152.62	155.75	158.91
Year 3 PV (M)	173.65	179.02	184.50
Year 4 PV (M)	190.06	197.93	206.05
Year 5 PV (M)	202.47	213.01	223.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,336.89	5,614.79	5,904.15
Equity Value (M)	6,181.92	6,488.04	6,806.43
Shares Outstanding (M)	317.06	317.06	317.06
Fair Value	$19.50	$20.46	$21.47
Upside / Downside	-47.10%	-44.48%	-41.76%

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Xiangyang Changyuandonggu Industry Co., Ltd. (603950.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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