DDM Analysis: 601158.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.48 - $4.53	$3.33
Multi-Stage	$4.48 - $4.92	$4.69
Blended Fair Value	$4.01
Current Price	$4.64
Upside	-13.49%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-5.27%	-2.86%	0.23	0.32	0.30	0.28	0.26	0.30	0.32	0.30	0.28	0.29
YoY Growth	-	-	-28.75%	8.98%	5.24%	7.80%	-13.43%	-5.74%	6.56%	7.37%	-2.58%	-6.60%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.77%	5.60%	5.52%	4.44%	4.04%	5.79%	5.16%	4.52%	3.61%	3.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	835.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	765.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)	70.05

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	167.05	104.41	62.64
Cash Retained (M)	70.05	70.05	70.05
(-) Cash Required (M)	-167.05	-104.41	-62.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-96.99	-34.35	7.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,785.44	4,785.44	4,785.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.02	-0.01	0.00
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.02	-0.01	0.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.15	0.16
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	0.66%	1.66%	2.66%
Fair Value	$2.48	$3.33	$4.53
Upside / Downside	-46.46%	-28.16%	-2.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	835.25	849.15	863.28	877.64	892.25	907.09	934.30
Payout Ratio	91.61%	91.29%	90.97%	90.65%	90.32%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	765.19	775.19	785.30	795.54	805.90	816.38	864.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	0.66%	1.66%	2.66%
Year 1 PV (M)	721.92	729.10	736.27
Year 2 PV (M)	681.09	694.69	708.43
Year 3 PV (M)	642.56	661.91	681.63
Year 4 PV (M)	606.21	630.66	655.84
Year 5 PV (M)	571.90	600.88	631.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	18,226.35	19,149.83	20,110.36
Equity Value (M)	21,450.04	22,467.05	23,523.54
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,785.44	4,785.44	4,785.44
Fair Value	$4.48	$4.69	$4.92
Upside / Downside	-3.40%	1.18%	5.94%

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Chongqing Water Group Co.,Ltd. (601158.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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