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Chongqing Water Group Co.,Ltd. (601158.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.48 - $4.53$3.33
Multi-Stage$4.48 - $4.92$4.69
Blended Fair Value$4.01
Current Price$4.64
Upside-13.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.27%-2.86%0.230.320.300.280.260.300.320.300.280.29
YoY Growth---28.75%8.98%5.24%7.80%-13.43%-5.74%6.56%7.37%-2.58%-6.60%
Dividend Yield--4.77%5.60%5.52%4.44%4.04%5.79%5.16%4.52%3.61%3.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)835.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)765.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)167.05104.4162.64
Cash Retained (M)70.0570.0570.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-167.05-104.41-62.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)-96.99-34.357.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,785.444,785.444,785.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate0.66%1.66%2.66%
Fair Value$2.48$3.33$4.53
Upside / Downside-46.46%-28.16%-2.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)835.25849.15863.28877.64892.25907.09934.30
Payout Ratio91.61%91.29%90.97%90.65%90.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)765.19775.19785.30795.54805.90816.38864.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate0.66%1.66%2.66%
Year 1 PV (M)721.92729.10736.27
Year 2 PV (M)681.09694.69708.43
Year 3 PV (M)642.56661.91681.63
Year 4 PV (M)606.21630.66655.84
Year 5 PV (M)571.90600.88631.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,226.3519,149.8320,110.36
Equity Value (M)21,450.0422,467.0523,523.54
Shares Outstanding (M)4,785.444,785.444,785.44
Fair Value$4.48$4.69$4.92
Upside / Downside-3.40%1.18%5.94%

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