Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HUAYU Automotive Systems Company Limited (600741.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.32 - $54.32$40.40
Multi-Stage$43.62 - $47.95$45.74
Blended Fair Value$43.07
Current Price$20.50
Upside110.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.74%8.81%0.931.040.980.860.991.191.151.120.890.54
YoY Growth---10.12%5.55%14.28%-12.66%-17.16%3.78%2.72%24.74%66.48%33.99%
Dividend Yield--5.16%5.88%5.87%4.31%3.57%5.52%5.44%4.60%4.91%3.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,904.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)342.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,562.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,380.99863.12517.87
Cash Retained (M)6,562.066,562.066,562.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,380.99-863.12-517.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,181.075,698.946,044.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,152.723,152.723,152.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.641.811.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.641.811.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.751.922.03
WACC / Discount Rate7.08%7.08%7.08%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Fair Value$30.32$40.40$54.32
Upside / Downside47.91%97.06%165.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,904.977,059.097,216.667,377.747,542.417,710.767,942.09
Payout Ratio4.97%21.97%38.98%55.99%72.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)342.911,551.092,813.034,130.535,505.456,939.697,346.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.08%7.08%7.08%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)1,434.341,448.511,462.68
Year 2 PV (M)2,405.492,453.252,501.48
Year 3 PV (M)3,266.263,364.023,463.70
Year 4 PV (M)4,025.814,187.254,353.50
Year 5 PV (M)4,692.614,929.015,174.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)121,700.30127,831.19134,206.72
Equity Value (M)137,524.82144,213.24151,162.93
Shares Outstanding (M)3,152.723,152.723,152.72
Fair Value$43.62$45.74$47.95
Upside / Downside112.79%123.13%133.89%

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