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Definitive Analysis

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HUAYU Automotive Systems Company Limited (600741.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$354.74 - $418.28$391.83
Multi-Stage$238.95 - $263.32$250.90
Blended Fair Value$321.36
Current Price$20.50
Upside1,467.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.74%8.81%0.931.040.980.860.991.191.151.120.890.54
YoY Growth---10.12%5.55%14.28%-12.66%-17.16%3.78%2.72%24.74%66.48%33.99%
Dividend Yield--5.16%5.88%5.87%4.31%3.57%5.52%5.44%4.60%4.91%3.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,904.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)342.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,562.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,380.99863.12517.87
Cash Retained (M)6,562.066,562.066,562.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,380.99-863.12-517.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,181.075,698.946,044.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,152.723,152.723,152.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.641.811.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.641.811.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.751.922.03
WACC / Discount Rate-0.92%-0.92%-0.92%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Fair Value$354.74$391.83$418.28
Upside / Downside1,630.45%1,811.38%1,940.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,904.977,059.097,216.667,377.747,542.417,710.767,942.09
Payout Ratio4.97%21.97%38.98%55.99%72.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)342.911,551.092,813.034,130.535,505.456,939.697,346.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.92%-0.92%-0.92%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)1,550.161,565.471,580.79
Year 2 PV (M)2,809.672,865.452,921.78
Year 3 PV (M)4,123.134,246.534,372.36
Year 4 PV (M)5,492.295,712.555,939.36
Year 5 PV (M)6,918.967,267.527,629.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)732,448.97769,347.53807,718.39
Equity Value (M)753,343.19791,005.05830,162.67
Shares Outstanding (M)3,152.723,152.723,152.72
Fair Value$238.95$250.90$263.32
Upside / Downside1,065.61%1,123.88%1,184.47%

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