DDM Analysis: 1788.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.51 - $0.70	$0.61
Multi-Stage	$1.51 - $1.67	$1.59
Blended Fair Value	$1.10
Current Price	$3.43
Upside	-68.04%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-15.16%	-6.13%	0.02	0.02	0.05	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.07	0.05	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	4.99%	-58.15%	-50.70%	87.44%	8.22%	-20.26%	-4.54%	29.24%	-9.98%	36.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.97%	3.55%	6.96%	9.41%	5.21%	3.63%	4.98%	2.59%	2.13%	2.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	979.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	316.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)	663.03

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	195.94	122.46	73.48
Cash Retained (M)	663.03	663.03	663.03
(-) Cash Required (M)	-195.94	-122.46	-73.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	467.09	540.56	589.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	9,544.97	9,544.97	9,544.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.08	0.09	0.09
WACC / Discount Rate	6.60%	6.60%	6.60%
Growth Rate	-8.13%	-7.13%	-6.13%
Fair Value	$0.51	$0.61	$0.70
Upside / Downside	-85.07%	-82.29%	-79.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	979.71	909.82	844.92	784.65	728.67	676.69	696.99
Payout Ratio	32.32%	43.86%	55.39%	66.93%	78.46%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	316.68	399.04	468.04	525.16	571.75	609.02	644.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.60%	6.60%	6.60%
Growth Rate	-8.13%	-7.13%	-6.13%
Year 1 PV (M)	370.32	374.35	378.38
Year 2 PV (M)	403.08	411.91	420.83
Year 3 PV (M)	419.72	433.58	447.74
Year 4 PV (M)	424.07	442.83	462.22
Year 5 PV (M)	419.20	442.51	466.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)	12,340.14	13,026.55	13,743.18
Equity Value (M)	14,376.52	15,131.74	15,919.20
Shares Outstanding (M)	9,544.97	9,544.97	9,544.97
Fair Value	$1.51	$1.59	$1.67
Upside / Downside	-56.09%	-53.78%	-51.38%

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Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (1788.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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