Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (1788.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.50 - $0.69$0.60
Multi-Stage$1.40 - $1.55$1.47
Blended Fair Value$1.03
Current Price$3.43
Upside-69.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.16%-6.13%0.020.020.050.100.050.050.060.070.050.06
YoY Growth--4.99%-58.15%-50.70%87.44%8.22%-20.26%-4.54%29.24%-9.98%36.45%
Dividend Yield--1.97%3.55%6.96%9.41%5.21%3.63%4.98%2.59%2.13%2.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)979.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)316.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)663.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)195.94122.4673.48
Cash Retained (M)663.03663.03663.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-195.94-122.46-73.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)467.09540.56589.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,544.979,544.979,544.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-8.13%-7.13%-6.13%
Fair Value$0.50$0.60$0.69
Upside / Downside-85.35%-82.64%-80.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)979.71909.82844.92784.65728.67676.69696.99
Payout Ratio32.32%43.86%55.39%66.93%78.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)316.68399.04468.04525.16571.75609.02644.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-8.13%-7.13%-6.13%
Year 1 PV (M)369.36373.38377.40
Year 2 PV (M)400.99409.77418.64
Year 3 PV (M)416.46430.21444.26
Year 4 PV (M)419.68438.25457.43
Year 5 PV (M)413.78436.79460.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,307.2911,936.2512,592.90
Equity Value (M)13,327.5514,024.6514,751.45
Shares Outstanding (M)9,544.979,544.979,544.97
Fair Value$1.40$1.47$1.55
Upside / Downside-59.29%-57.16%-54.94%

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