DDM Analysis: 002942.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.99 - $4.11	$3.56
Multi-Stage	$6.08 - $6.69	$6.38
Blended Fair Value	$4.97
Current Price	$18.69
Upside	-73.43%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-3.81%	-3.56%	0.20	0.25	0.50	0.23	0.29	0.24	0.41	0.29	0.14	0.22
YoY Growth	-	-	-20.00%	-50.00%	112.79%	-18.14%	18.18%	-41.52%	44.38%	104.26%	-37.38%	-21.75%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.29%	1.90%	2.56%	1.35%	1.34%	1.21%	1.69%	1.80%	0.88%	1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	86.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	46.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)	39.94

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	17.33	10.83	6.50
Cash Retained (M)	39.94	39.94	39.94
(-) Cash Required (M)	-17.33	-10.83	-6.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)	22.60	29.11	33.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	153.86	153.86	153.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.19	0.22
LTM Dividend per Share	0.30	0.30	0.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.19	0.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.45	0.49	0.52
WACC / Discount Rate	8.67%	8.67%	8.67%
Growth Rate	-5.56%	-4.56%	-3.56%
Fair Value	$2.99	$3.56	$4.11
Upside / Downside	-84.00%	-80.98%	-78.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	86.67	82.72	78.95	75.34	71.91	68.63	70.69
Payout Ratio	53.92%	61.13%	68.35%	75.57%	82.78%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	46.73	50.57	53.96	56.94	59.53	61.77	65.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.67%	8.67%	8.67%
Growth Rate	-5.56%	-4.56%	-3.56%
Year 1 PV (M)	46.05	46.54	47.02
Year 2 PV (M)	44.74	45.69	46.66
Year 3 PV (M)	42.99	44.37	45.78
Year 4 PV (M)	40.93	42.69	44.50
Year 5 PV (M)	38.67	40.76	42.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)	721.99	761.04	801.75
Equity Value (M)	935.36	981.08	1,028.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	153.86	153.86	153.86
Fair Value	$6.08	$6.38	$6.69
Upside / Downside	-67.47%	-65.88%	-64.23%

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Zhejiang XinNong Chemical Co.,Ltd. (002942.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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