Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang XinNong Chemical Co.,Ltd. (002942.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.99 - $4.11$3.56
Multi-Stage$6.08 - $6.69$6.38
Blended Fair Value$4.97
Current Price$18.69
Upside-73.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.81%-3.56%0.200.250.500.230.290.240.410.290.140.22
YoY Growth---20.00%-50.00%112.79%-18.14%18.18%-41.52%44.38%104.26%-37.38%-21.75%
Dividend Yield--1.29%1.90%2.56%1.35%1.34%1.21%1.69%1.80%0.88%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)86.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.3310.836.50
Cash Retained (M)39.9439.9439.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.33-10.83-6.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.6029.1133.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)153.86153.86153.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate-5.56%-4.56%-3.56%
Fair Value$2.99$3.56$4.11
Upside / Downside-84.00%-80.98%-78.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)86.6782.7278.9575.3471.9168.6370.69
Payout Ratio53.92%61.13%68.35%75.57%82.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.7350.5753.9656.9459.5361.7765.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate-5.56%-4.56%-3.56%
Year 1 PV (M)46.0546.5447.02
Year 2 PV (M)44.7445.6946.66
Year 3 PV (M)42.9944.3745.78
Year 4 PV (M)40.9342.6944.50
Year 5 PV (M)38.6740.7642.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)721.99761.04801.75
Equity Value (M)935.36981.081,028.65
Shares Outstanding (M)153.86153.86153.86
Fair Value$6.08$6.38$6.69
Upside / Downside-67.47%-65.88%-64.23%

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