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Definitive Analysis

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The Weir Group PLC (WEIR.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.40 - $24.35$20.19
Multi-Stage$29.30 - $32.19$30.71
Blended Fair Value$25.45
Current Price$24.90
Upside2.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.89%-0.29%0.380.370.260.110.000.470.310.290.180.36
YoY Growth--4.07%43.78%123.83%0.00%-100.00%52.89%7.28%62.01%-51.28%-8.47%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.95%1.54%0.67%0.00%3.11%2.36%1.35%0.93%3.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)526.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)202.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)323.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)105.3265.8339.50
Cash Retained (M)323.70323.70323.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-105.32-65.83-39.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)218.38257.88284.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)259.45259.45259.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.840.991.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.840.991.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.621.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate8.01%8.01%8.01%
Growth Rate-1.73%-0.73%0.27%
Fair Value$16.40$20.19$24.35
Upside / Downside-34.16%-18.92%-2.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)526.60522.77518.97515.20511.45507.74522.97
Payout Ratio38.53%48.82%59.12%69.41%79.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)202.90255.24306.81357.61407.66456.96483.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.01%8.01%8.01%
Growth Rate-1.73%-0.73%0.27%
Year 1 PV (M)233.94236.32238.70
Year 2 PV (M)257.74263.01268.33
Year 3 PV (M)275.35283.84292.50
Year 4 PV (M)287.69299.58311.83
Year 5 PV (M)295.57310.92326.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,250.746,575.316,913.22
Equity Value (M)7,601.027,968.978,351.49
Shares Outstanding (M)259.45259.45259.45
Fair Value$29.30$30.71$32.19
Upside / Downside17.66%23.35%29.27%

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