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Definitive Analysis

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On the Beach Group plc (OTB.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.09 - $4.01$2.86
Multi-Stage$1.75 - $1.91$1.83
Blended Fair Value$2.34
Current Price$2.22
Upside5.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.51%0.00%0.030.010.000.000.000.020.030.020.020.00
YoY Growth--226.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-43.48%17.95%-3.54%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.32%0.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.64%0.72%0.46%0.61%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.322.701.62
Cash Retained (M)15.2015.2015.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.32-2.70-1.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.8812.5013.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)167.66167.66167.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate4.76%5.76%6.76%
Fair Value$2.09$2.86$4.01
Upside / Downside-6.00%28.65%80.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21.6022.8424.1625.5527.0228.5829.44
Payout Ratio29.63%41.70%53.78%65.85%77.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.409.5312.9916.8321.0625.7227.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate4.76%5.76%6.76%
Year 1 PV (M)8.588.678.75
Year 2 PV (M)10.5510.7510.95
Year 3 PV (M)12.3112.6613.03
Year 4 PV (M)13.8814.4214.97
Year 5 PV (M)15.2816.0216.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)233.26244.61256.39
Equity Value (M)293.86307.13320.89
Shares Outstanding (M)167.66167.66167.66
Fair Value$1.75$1.83$1.91
Upside / Downside-21.05%-17.48%-13.79%

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