Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

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Sector

Gold Road Resources Limited (GOR.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.85 - $6.68$5.07
Multi-Stage$3.02 - $3.29$3.15
Blended Fair Value$4.11
Current Price$3.27
Upside25.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.010.010.020.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---13.45%22.30%-25.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.73%0.69%1.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)309.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)272.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.9338.7123.22
Cash Retained (M)272.14272.14272.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.93-38.71-23.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)210.20233.43248.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,087.011,087.011,087.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate11.74%11.74%11.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.85$5.07$6.68
Upside / Downside17.85%54.95%104.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)309.65329.78351.22374.05398.36424.25436.98
Payout Ratio12.12%27.69%43.27%58.85%74.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.5291.33151.97220.11296.47381.83404.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.74%11.74%11.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)80.9681.7382.50
Year 2 PV (M)119.44121.72124.01
Year 3 PV (M)153.37157.77162.26
Year 4 PV (M)183.14190.18197.42
Year 5 PV (M)209.10219.20229.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,532.932,655.272,782.30
Equity Value (M)3,278.943,425.873,578.18
Shares Outstanding (M)1,087.011,087.011,087.01
Fair Value$3.02$3.15$3.29
Upside / Downside-7.75%-3.62%0.67%

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