Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu Bide Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (605298.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.52 - $84.34$30.26
Multi-Stage$8.94 - $9.77$9.34
Blended Fair Value$19.80
Current Price$42.56
Upside-53.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.60%23.57%0.100.120.240.240.220.250.110.170.080.03
YoY Growth---13.50%-51.25%0.00%6.67%-10.27%127.76%-35.56%104.04%147.05%178.03%
Dividend Yield--0.69%1.14%2.21%2.31%1.56%1.82%0.00%0.00%0.61%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.409.625.77
Cash Retained (M)45.5145.5145.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.40-9.62-5.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.1135.8839.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)181.54181.54181.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.52$30.26$84.34
Upside / Downside-63.53%-28.91%98.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76.9981.9987.3293.0099.04105.48108.64
Payout Ratio40.89%50.71%60.53%70.36%80.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.4841.5852.8665.4379.4194.93100.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38.2138.5738.93
Year 2 PV (M)44.6345.4846.34
Year 3 PV (M)50.7652.2253.71
Year 4 PV (M)56.6158.7961.03
Year 5 PV (M)62.1965.1968.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,369.781,435.941,504.63
Equity Value (M)1,622.181,696.201,772.95
Shares Outstanding (M)181.54181.54181.54
Fair Value$8.94$9.34$9.77
Upside / Downside-79.00%-78.05%-77.05%

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