Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Camel Group Co., Ltd. (601311.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.14 - $41.12$23.32
Multi-Stage$10.07 - $11.02$10.54
Blended Fair Value$16.93
Current Price$11.28
Upside50.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.85%9.08%0.320.200.220.190.370.110.040.040.160.07
YoY Growth--60.13%-9.09%15.48%-49.02%240.00%166.62%-6.56%-71.63%115.00%-46.16%
Dividend Yield--3.76%2.50%2.23%1.69%3.50%1.69%0.38%0.44%1.27%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)745.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)707.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)149.0793.1755.90
Cash Retained (M)707.02707.02707.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-149.07-93.17-55.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)557.94613.85651.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,175.711,175.711,175.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.520.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.520.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.550.59
WACC / Discount Rate9.03%9.03%9.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.14$23.32$41.12
Upside / Downside34.26%106.77%264.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)745.36793.81845.41900.36958.891,021.211,051.85
Payout Ratio5.14%22.12%39.09%56.06%73.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.35175.56330.44504.72700.26919.09972.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.03%9.03%9.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)159.50161.01162.53
Year 2 PV (M)272.76277.96283.20
Year 3 PV (M)378.52389.39400.46
Year 4 PV (M)477.14495.48514.36
Year 5 PV (M)568.96596.44624.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,983.6110,465.8210,966.49
Equity Value (M)11,840.4912,386.1112,952.01
Shares Outstanding (M)1,175.711,175.711,175.71
Fair Value$10.07$10.54$11.02
Upside / Downside-10.72%-6.60%-2.34%

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