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Definitive Analysis

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Shenyu Communication Technology Inc. (300563.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.05 - $14.97$10.01
Multi-Stage$5.02 - $5.49$5.25
Blended Fair Value$7.63
Current Price$42.65
Upside-82.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.38%25.98%0.270.090.090.080.100.060.060.100.020.02
YoY Growth--194.27%-0.53%14.76%-15.76%54.87%5.99%-44.24%477.93%-27.39%-7.36%
Dividend Yield--0.68%0.57%0.67%0.60%0.62%0.42%0.37%0.72%0.07%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)65.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.108.194.91
Cash Retained (M)65.4765.4765.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.10-8.19-4.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.3757.2860.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)174.37174.37174.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.05$10.01$14.97
Upside / Downside-83.46%-76.52%-64.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.4969.7574.2879.1184.2589.7392.42
Payout Ratio0.03%18.03%36.02%54.01%72.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0212.5726.7542.7360.6780.7585.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11.3211.4311.54
Year 2 PV (M)21.7022.1122.53
Year 3 PV (M)31.2132.1133.02
Year 4 PV (M)39.9141.4443.02
Year 5 PV (M)47.8450.1552.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)724.08759.05795.36
Equity Value (M)876.06916.30958.02
Shares Outstanding (M)174.37174.37174.37
Fair Value$5.02$5.25$5.49
Upside / Downside-88.22%-87.68%-87.12%

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