Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hunan Development Group Co.,Ltd (000722.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.68 - $0.90$0.79
Multi-Stage$0.95 - $1.04$0.99
Blended Fair Value$0.89
Current Price$12.13
Upside-92.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.53%-4.09%0.050.000.110.120.070.070.070.050.020.04
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-8.02%74.13%-0.83%-0.66%29.54%195.31%-57.44%-48.66%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.00%0.86%1.30%0.93%1.18%0.74%0.59%0.11%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.088.805.28
Cash Retained (M)43.8343.8343.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.08-8.80-5.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.7435.0338.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)444.34444.34444.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate13.14%13.14%13.14%
Growth Rate-4.75%-3.75%-2.75%
Fair Value$0.68$0.79$0.90
Upside / Downside-94.43%-93.48%-92.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.4267.7865.2462.7960.4458.1759.92
Payout Ratio37.76%48.21%58.66%69.10%79.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.5932.6738.2743.3948.0852.3555.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate13.14%13.14%13.14%
Growth Rate-4.75%-3.75%-2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)28.5828.8829.18
Year 2 PV (M)29.2829.8930.52
Year 3 PV (M)29.0429.9630.91
Year 4 PV (M)28.1429.3430.58
Year 5 PV (M)26.8128.2429.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)279.94294.94310.59
Equity Value (M)421.78441.27461.52
Shares Outstanding (M)444.34444.34444.34
Fair Value$0.95$0.99$1.04
Upside / Downside-92.17%-91.81%-91.44%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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