Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangling Motors Corporation, Ltd. (000550.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.26 - $41.38$29.24
Multi-Stage$18.47 - $20.23$19.34
Blended Fair Value$24.29
Current Price$21.15
Upside14.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS76.96%-1.29%0.690.420.263.460.070.042.630.611.030.97
YoY Growth--63.70%59.40%-92.35%4,865.71%75.00%-98.48%332.30%-40.78%6.19%22.78%
Dividend Yield--3.02%1.42%1.87%25.24%0.24%0.34%11.09%4.07%3.75%3.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,120.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,119.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)224.04140.0284.01
Cash Retained (M)1,119.861,119.861,119.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-224.04-140.02-84.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)895.82979.841,035.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)866.60866.60866.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.031.131.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.031.131.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.031.131.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate4.18%5.18%6.18%
Fair Value$21.26$29.24$41.38
Upside / Downside0.51%38.26%95.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,120.181,178.241,239.311,303.551,371.111,442.181,485.45
Payout Ratio0.03%18.02%36.02%54.01%72.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.32212.35446.37704.07987.281,297.961,374.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate4.18%5.18%6.18%
Year 1 PV (M)192.52194.37196.22
Year 2 PV (M)366.89373.97381.11
Year 3 PV (M)524.67539.92555.47
Year 4 PV (M)667.02693.00719.73
Year 5 PV (M)795.03833.93874.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,463.1314,121.7914,805.97
Equity Value (M)16,009.2716,756.9817,532.83
Shares Outstanding (M)866.60866.60866.60
Fair Value$18.47$19.34$20.23
Upside / Downside-12.65%-8.58%-4.34%

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