Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (ELET5.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.62 - $193.19$106.83
Multi-Stage$80.93 - $88.70$84.75
Blended Fair Value$95.79
Current Price$82.50
Upside16.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.02%4.84%0.570.370.641.621.120.510.030.170.000.01
YoY Growth--51.34%-42.00%-60.24%44.48%119.24%1,734.36%-83.09%6,487.84%-74.89%-97.17%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.38%0.99%2.51%1.56%1.25%0.06%0.85%0.01%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,632.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,243.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,388.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,326.46829.03497.42
Cash Retained (M)2,388.562,388.562,388.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,326.46-829.03-497.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,062.101,559.521,891.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,311.512,311.512,311.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.670.82
LTM Dividend per Share1.841.841.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.670.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.302.512.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate2.84%3.84%4.84%
Fair Value$68.62$106.83$193.19
Upside / Downside-16.83%29.49%134.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,632.286,887.187,151.877,426.747,712.178,008.578,248.83
Payout Ratio63.99%69.19%74.39%79.59%84.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,243.724,765.155,320.395,911.276,539.707,207.727,630.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate2.84%3.84%4.84%
Year 1 PV (M)4,440.254,483.424,526.60
Year 2 PV (M)4,619.614,709.884,801.03
Year 3 PV (M)4,782.704,923.585,067.19
Year 4 PV (M)4,930.405,124.985,325.26
Year 5 PV (M)5,063.525,314.535,575.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)163,241.01171,333.26179,743.29
Equity Value (M)187,077.49195,889.65205,038.77
Shares Outstanding (M)2,311.512,311.512,311.51
Fair Value$80.93$84.75$88.70
Upside / Downside-1.90%2.72%7.52%

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