Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Sichuan Shudao Equipment & Technology Co.,Ltd. (300540.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.95 - $8.48$6.48
Multi-Stage$4.95 - $5.42$5.18
Blended Fair Value$5.83
Current Price$19.63
Upside-70.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.92%-8.40%0.030.020.020.060.020.030.040.040.020.05
YoY Growth--57.72%-16.00%-64.01%169.35%-36.25%-7.13%-21.02%85.80%-51.16%-23.69%
Dividend Yield--0.16%0.10%0.15%0.32%0.16%0.37%0.28%0.42%0.10%0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.728.585.15
Cash Retained (M)56.7756.7756.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.72-8.58-5.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.0448.1951.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)178.41178.41178.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate3.36%4.36%5.36%
Fair Value$4.95$6.48$8.48
Upside / Downside-74.76%-66.99%-56.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.6171.6074.7277.9781.3784.9187.46
Payout Ratio17.27%31.81%46.36%60.91%75.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.8522.7834.6447.4961.4076.4280.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate3.36%4.36%5.36%
Year 1 PV (M)20.5520.7520.95
Year 2 PV (M)28.2028.7529.30
Year 3 PV (M)34.8835.9036.94
Year 4 PV (M)40.6842.2843.92
Year 5 PV (M)45.6947.9450.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)713.89749.10785.69
Equity Value (M)883.89924.72967.08
Shares Outstanding (M)178.41178.41178.41
Fair Value$4.95$5.18$5.42
Upside / Downside-74.76%-73.60%-72.39%

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