Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $11,963.31 - $17,304.79 | $14,560.40 |
| Multi-Stage | $19,019.95 - $20,941.20 | $19,961.75 |
| Blended Fair Value | $17,261.08 | |
| Current Price | $28,800.00 | |
| Upside | -40.07% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -15.11% | 0.00% | 562.70 | 2.63 | 1,765.96 | 1,647.92 | 2,064.16 | 1,276.49 | 1,620.51 | 575.97 | 251.31 | 14.26 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 21,284.59% | -99.85% | 7.16% | -20.16% | 61.71% | -21.23% | 181.36% | 129.18% | 1,662.72% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.00% | 0.01% | 8.68% | 10.62% | 12.21% | 9.20% | 13.11% | 6.91% | 3.32% | 0.22% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 19,050.43 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1.86 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 19,048.57 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 3,810.09 | 2,381.30 | 1,428.78 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 19,048.57 | 19,048.57 | 19,048.57 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -3,810.09 | -2,381.30 | -1,428.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 15,238.49 | 16,667.27 | 17,619.79 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 11.51 | 11.51 | 11.51 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1,324.31 | 1,448.48 | 1,531.26 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1,324.31 | 1,448.48 | 1,531.26 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1,324.47 | 1,448.64 | 1,531.42 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.85% | 8.85% | 8.85% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $11,963.31 | $14,560.40 | $17,304.79 |
| Upside / Downside | -58.46% | -49.44% | -39.91% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 19,050.43 | 18,859.93 | 18,671.33 | 18,484.61 | 18,299.77 | 18,116.77 | 18,660.27 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.01% | 18.01% | 36.01% | 54.00% | 72.00% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1.86 | 3,396.26 | 6,722.77 | 9,982.41 | 13,176.19 | 16,305.09 | 17,260.75 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.85% | 8.85% | 8.85% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,088.62 | 3,120.14 | 3,151.65 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 5,560.01 | 5,674.06 | 5,789.27 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 7,508.04 | 7,740.23 | 7,977.16 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 9,012.48 | 9,386.01 | 9,771.02 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 10,142.42 | 10,670.56 | 11,220.47 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 183,545.63 | 193,103.28 | 203,054.99 |
| Equity Value (M) | 218,857.20 | 229,694.27 | 240,964.57 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 11.51 | 11.51 | 11.51 |
| Fair Value | $19,019.95 | $19,961.75 | $20,941.20 |
| Upside / Downside | -33.96% | -30.69% | -27.29% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.77% | $1.48 | 22.19% |
| FUSB | First US Bancshares, Inc. | 1.76% | $0.25 | 26.72% |
| R | Ryder System, Inc. | 1.76% | $3.41 | 28.29% |
| RGA | Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated | 1.75% | $3.55 | 27.34% |
| TFG.AS | Tetragon Financial Group Limited | 1.75% | $0.30 | 3.32% |
| WFC | Wells Fargo & Company | 1.75% | $1.67 | 25.46% |
| HCKT | The Hackett Group, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.34 | 85.97% |
| LEG | Leggett & Platt, Incorporated | 1.74% | $0.19 | 11.94% |
| RPRX | Royalty Pharma plc | 1.74% | $0.67 | 49.36% |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.76 | 37.96% |
| SXT | Sensient Technologies Corporation | 1.74% | $1.63 | 50.00% |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | 1.73% | $3.09 | 52.31% |
| PRG | PROG Holdings, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.51 | 12.57% |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.53 | 26.88% |
| UFCS | United Fire Group, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.62 | 14.63% |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Financial Corp. | 1.72% | $0.55 | 16.32% |
| BK | The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | 1.72% | $2.01 | 27.06% |
| COWN | Cowen Inc. | 1.72% | $0.67 | 33.32% |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | 1.72% | $2.35 | 40.66% |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.73 | 59.04% |
| DTF | DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc. | 1.71% | $0.20 | 80.42% |
| ERIE | Erie Indemnity Company | 1.71% | $4.75 | 38.59% |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.68 | 17.01% |
| MTCH | Match Group, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.54 | 25.07% |
| LBRT | Liberty Energy Inc. | 1.70% | $0.32 | 28.43% |
| OVBC | Ohio Valley Banc Corp. | 1.70% | $0.67 | 28.36% |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial Corporation | 1.70% | $2.43 | 20.92% |
| BANF | BancFirst Corporation | 1.69% | $1.80 | 25.72% |
| BDL | Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.50 | 21.50% |
| CDHAX | Calvert International Responsible Idx A | 1.69% | $0.64 | 41.92% |
| CINR | Sisecam Resources LP | 1.69% | $0.34 | 19.21% |
| EXPO | Exponent, Inc. | 1.69% | $1.18 | 58.07% |
| GD | General Dynamics Corporation | 1.69% | $5.80 | 37.41% |
| HQI | HireQuest, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.18 | 36.36% |
| OTF | Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. | 1.69% | $0.24 | 9.20% |
| PHIN | PHINIA Inc. | 1.68% | $1.09 | 47.78% |
| PTRS | Partners Bancorp | 1.68% | $0.12 | 13.62% |
| RNGR | Ranger Energy Services, Inc. | 1.67% | $0.24 | 34.90% |
| HQH | Abrdn Healthcare Investors | 1.66% | $0.31 | 6.95% |
| JILL | J.Jill, Inc. | 1.66% | $0.23 | 10.45% |
| PSH.AS | Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | 1.65% | $0.85 | 6.48% |
| SKT | Tanger Inc. | 1.65% | $0.55 | 58.16% |
| USCB | USCB Financial Holdings, Inc. | 1.64% | $0.30 | 18.70% |
| BOTJ | Bank of the James Financial Group, Inc. | 1.62% | $0.30 | 26.41% |
| RS | Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | 1.62% | $4.78 | 34.66% |
| SCI | Service Corporation International | 1.62% | $1.25 | 33.57% |
| SMLP | Summit Midstream Partners, LP | 1.62% | $0.59 | 6.02% |
| TKR | The Timken Company | 1.62% | $1.40 | 32.90% |
| TRINL | Trinity Capital Inc. - 7.00% No | 1.62% | $0.41 | 20.50% |
| CARR | Carrier Global Corporation | 1.61% | $0.86 | 18.56% |