Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.10 - $35.21$28.06
Multi-Stage$29.81 - $32.56$31.16
Blended Fair Value$29.61
Current Price$47.25
Upside-37.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.24%-4.15%1.471.381.200.851.872.662.412.382.342.30
YoY Growth--5.93%15.29%41.12%-54.53%-29.69%10.53%1.19%1.60%1.99%2.44%
Dividend Yield--2.97%2.09%1.92%1.50%7.03%22.98%3.58%3.66%3.70%3.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,067.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,563.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)504.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)413.40258.38155.03
Cash Retained (M)504.00504.00504.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-413.40-258.38-155.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)90.60245.63348.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)986.13986.13986.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.250.35
LTM Dividend per Share1.581.581.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.250.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.831.94
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.40%2.40%3.40%
Fair Value$22.10$28.06$35.21
Upside / Downside-53.23%-40.62%-25.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,067.002,116.682,167.562,219.652,273.002,327.632,397.46
Payout Ratio75.62%78.49%81.37%84.25%87.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,563.001,661.461,763.741,869.991,980.322,094.872,217.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.40%2.40%3.40%
Year 1 PV (M)1,508.031,522.901,537.77
Year 2 PV (M)1,453.041,481.841,510.92
Year 3 PV (M)1,398.311,440.081,482.69
Year 4 PV (M)1,344.061,397.871,453.28
Year 5 PV (M)1,290.521,355.421,422.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,403.3623,530.0324,701.57
Equity Value (M)29,397.3230,728.1432,109.14
Shares Outstanding (M)986.13986.13986.13
Fair Value$29.81$31.16$32.56
Upside / Downside-36.91%-34.05%-31.09%

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