Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Overseas Commerce Ltd. (OVRS.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.39 - $5.25$4.25
Multi-Stage$7.24 - $7.97$7.60
Blended Fair Value$5.92
Current Price$4.44
Upside33.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.38%-6.17%0.050.100.290.110.140.130.200.200.180.00
YoY Growth---51.47%-65.62%152.03%-19.48%6.99%-33.03%-0.91%10.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.12%2.58%6.29%2.63%3.31%5.09%4.10%3.20%2.45%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.992.491.49
Cash Retained (M)11.5011.5011.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.99-2.49-1.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.529.0110.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.3855.3855.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.64%6.64%6.64%
Growth Rate-1.72%-0.72%0.28%
Fair Value$3.39$4.25$5.25
Upside / Downside-23.76%-4.31%18.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.9319.7919.6419.5019.3619.2219.80
Payout Ratio42.28%51.82%61.37%70.91%80.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.4310.2512.0513.8315.5817.3018.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.64%6.64%6.64%
Growth Rate-1.72%-0.72%0.28%
Year 1 PV (M)9.529.619.71
Year 2 PV (M)10.3910.6010.81
Year 3 PV (M)11.0611.4011.75
Year 4 PV (M)11.5712.0512.54
Year 5 PV (M)11.9312.5413.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)346.69364.69383.43
Equity Value (M)401.15420.89441.43
Shares Outstanding (M)55.3855.3855.38
Fair Value$7.24$7.60$7.97
Upside / Downside63.15%71.18%79.53%

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