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John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.76 - $11.31$9.47
Multi-Stage$12.16 - $13.35$12.74
Blended Fair Value$11.11
Current Price$19.33
Upside-42.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.250.220.200.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--14.48%11.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.51%1.26%0.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.941.841.10
Cash Retained (M)10.4210.4210.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.94-1.84-1.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.488.589.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.2314.2314.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.600.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.600.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.900.96
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-1.40%-0.40%0.60%
Fair Value$7.76$9.47$11.31
Upside / Downside-59.87%-50.99%-41.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14.6914.6314.5714.5114.4614.4014.83
Payout Ratio29.07%41.25%53.44%65.63%77.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.276.047.799.5311.2512.9613.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-1.40%-0.40%0.60%
Year 1 PV (M)5.485.535.59
Year 2 PV (M)6.416.546.68
Year 3 PV (M)7.127.347.56
Year 4 PV (M)7.637.948.26
Year 5 PV (M)7.978.388.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)138.39145.55153.01
Equity Value (M)173.00181.29189.91
Shares Outstanding (M)14.2314.2314.23
Fair Value$12.16$12.74$13.35
Upside / Downside-37.10%-34.08%-30.95%

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