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John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.07 - $102.58$80.77
Multi-Stage$76.73 - $84.05$80.32
Blended Fair Value$80.55
Current Price$62.97
Upside27.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-18.71%3.83%2.082.974.682.944.905.862.482.424.811.92
YoY Growth---29.87%-36.66%59.07%-39.90%-16.41%136.43%2.48%-49.76%151.11%34.17%
Dividend Yield--3.30%3.09%4.70%3.85%6.06%7.94%2.57%3.40%7.20%3.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.208.254.95
Cash Retained (M)48.5148.5148.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.20-8.25-4.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.3140.2643.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.7311.7311.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.013.433.71
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.013.433.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.504.925.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Fair Value$63.07$80.77$102.58
Upside / Downside0.16%28.27%62.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.0067.8769.7971.7673.7975.8878.16
Payout Ratio26.50%39.20%51.90%64.60%77.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.4926.6136.2246.3657.0468.2972.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Year 1 PV (M)24.1524.3924.63
Year 2 PV (M)29.8430.4331.03
Year 3 PV (M)34.6735.7036.75
Year 4 PV (M)38.7240.2741.86
Year 5 PV (M)42.0844.1946.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)730.51767.10805.13
Equity Value (M)899.98942.07985.77
Shares Outstanding (M)11.7311.7311.73
Fair Value$76.73$80.32$84.05
Upside / Downside21.85%27.55%33.47%

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