Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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First Choice Bancorp (FCBP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.63 - $29.70$25.06
Multi-Stage$33.69 - $36.99$35.31
Blended Fair Value$30.18
Current Price$24.31
Upside24.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%1.000.850.650.490.000.000.070.030.000.00
YoY Growth--17.85%30.89%31.62%0.00%0.00%-100.00%104.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.11%5.65%3.01%1.82%0.00%0.00%0.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.834.272.56
Cash Retained (M)22.4322.4322.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.83-4.27-2.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.6018.1619.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.7011.7011.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.331.551.70
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.331.551.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.342.562.70
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.63$25.06$29.70
Upside / Downside-15.12%3.07%22.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34.1633.8233.4833.1532.8232.4933.46
Payout Ratio34.34%45.47%56.60%67.74%78.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.7315.3818.9522.4525.8829.2430.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)13.9514.1014.24
Year 2 PV (M)15.6015.9216.25
Year 3 PV (M)16.7717.2917.82
Year 4 PV (M)17.5418.2719.02
Year 5 PV (M)17.9818.9219.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)312.17328.43345.35
Equity Value (M)394.03412.93432.57
Shares Outstanding (M)11.7011.7011.70
Fair Value$33.69$35.31$36.99
Upside / Downside38.58%45.23%52.14%

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