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Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$407.51 - $1,081.00$623.12
Multi-Stage$278.59 - $304.40$291.26
Blended Fair Value$457.19
Current Price$328.96
Upside38.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.87%10.91%3.863.593.012.522.522.302.092.061.891.62
YoY Growth--7.55%19.27%19.47%0.09%9.23%10.05%1.52%8.99%16.87%18.14%
Dividend Yield--1.13%0.91%1.33%1.02%1.53%1.84%1.67%1.97%1.78%1.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)776.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)180.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)595.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)155.2297.0158.21
Cash Retained (M)595.80595.80595.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-155.22-97.01-58.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)440.58498.79537.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44.6844.6844.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.8611.1612.03
LTM Dividend per Share4.044.044.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.8611.1612.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.9015.2016.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$407.51$623.12$1,081.00
Upside / Downside23.88%89.42%228.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)776.10826.55880.27937.49998.431,063.321,095.22
Payout Ratio23.23%36.59%49.94%63.29%76.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)180.30302.39439.60593.36765.26956.991,013.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)274.57277.18279.78
Year 2 PV (M)362.43369.34376.31
Year 3 PV (M)444.20456.95469.94
Year 4 PV (M)520.18540.18560.76
Year 5 PV (M)590.66619.19648.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,253.8610,749.1311,263.35
Equity Value (M)12,445.9113,011.9713,598.95
Shares Outstanding (M)44.6844.6844.68
Fair Value$278.59$291.26$304.40
Upside / Downside-15.31%-11.46%-7.47%

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