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Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$318.19 - $721.61$462.45
Multi-Stage$364.58 - $399.01$381.48
Blended Fair Value$421.96
Current Price$118.82
Upside255.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.50%4.65%6.513.240.000.000.822.673.572.582.083.57
YoY Growth--100.62%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-69.22%-25.18%38.22%24.01%-41.65%-13.57%
Dividend Yield--7.04%3.13%0.00%0.00%1.02%5.90%4.29%2.01%1.86%5.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)665.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)468.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)196.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)133.0483.1549.89
Cash Retained (M)196.63196.63196.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-133.04-83.15-49.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)63.59113.48146.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.3441.3441.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.542.743.55
LTM Dividend per Share11.3311.3311.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.542.743.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.8714.0814.88
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate2.94%3.94%4.94%
Fair Value$318.19$462.45$721.61
Upside / Downside167.79%289.20%507.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)665.21691.44718.71747.06776.52807.15831.36
Payout Ratio70.44%74.35%78.26%82.18%86.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)468.58514.10562.50613.90668.49726.43769.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate2.94%3.94%4.94%
Year 1 PV (M)475.37479.99484.60
Year 2 PV (M)480.92490.31499.79
Year 3 PV (M)485.33499.61514.17
Year 4 PV (M)488.66507.93527.76
Year 5 PV (M)491.00515.32540.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,651.7413,278.2913,929.42
Equity Value (M)15,073.0215,771.4416,496.33
Shares Outstanding (M)41.3441.3441.34
Fair Value$364.58$381.48$399.01
Upside / Downside206.84%221.06%235.81%

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