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Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. (BWFG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.52 - $232.17$133.83
Multi-Stage$59.72 - $65.26$62.44
Blended Fair Value$98.13
Current Price$44.25
Upside121.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.02%0.00%0.810.800.800.650.560.520.480.280.210.05
YoY Growth--0.67%0.84%23.16%14.49%7.60%8.51%74.92%29.38%341.76%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.68%3.18%3.20%1.91%2.09%3.44%1.66%0.86%0.62%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.803.632.18
Cash Retained (M)22.7522.7522.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.80-3.63-2.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.9519.1220.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.787.787.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.182.462.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.182.462.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.983.263.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$87.52$133.83$232.17
Upside / Downside97.79%202.44%424.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.0230.9032.9135.0537.3339.7640.95
Payout Ratio21.59%35.28%48.96%62.64%76.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.2710.9016.1121.9628.4935.7837.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9.909.9910.09
Year 2 PV (M)13.2813.5413.79
Year 3 PV (M)16.4416.9117.39
Year 4 PV (M)19.3720.1120.88
Year 5 PV (M)22.0823.1524.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)383.37401.89421.12
Equity Value (M)464.44485.59507.52
Shares Outstanding (M)7.787.787.78
Fair Value$59.72$62.44$65.26
Upside / Downside34.96%41.10%47.48%

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