Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $270,255.29 - $840,317.21 | $432,835.66 |
| Multi-Stage | $288,895.26 - $316,249.00 | $302,317.70 |
| Blended Fair Value | $367,576.68 | |
| Current Price | $128,100.00 | |
| Upside | 186.95% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 3.88% | 16.39% | 6,421.91 | 5,705.99 | 5,662.35 | 5,836.81 | 5,366.69 | 5,309.37 | 4,371.59 | 3,717.86 | 3,024.90 | 1,450.57 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 12.55% | 0.77% | -2.99% | 8.76% | 1.08% | 21.45% | 17.58% | 22.91% | 108.53% | 3.08% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.01% | 4.84% | 4.10% | 3.63% | 3.30% | 3.83% | 3.12% | 2.89% | 2.25% | 0.99% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 48,622.53 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 39,721.80 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 8,900.73 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 9,724.51 | 6,077.82 | 3,646.69 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 8,900.73 | 8,900.73 | 8,900.73 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -9,724.51 | -6,077.82 | -3,646.69 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -823.78 | 2,822.91 | 5,254.04 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 4.61 | 4.61 | 4.61 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -178.53 | 611.77 | 1,138.64 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 8,608.39 | 8,608.39 | 8,608.39 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -178.53 | 611.77 | 1,138.64 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 8,429.86 | 9,220.16 | 9,747.03 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.48% | 6.48% | 6.48% |
| Growth Rate | 3.26% | 4.26% | 5.26% |
| Fair Value | $270,255.29 | $432,835.66 | $840,317.21 |
| Upside / Downside | 110.97% | 237.89% | 555.99% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 48,622.53 | 50,694.49 | 52,854.74 | 55,107.05 | 57,455.33 | 59,903.69 | 61,700.80 |
| Payout Ratio | 81.69% | 83.36% | 85.02% | 86.68% | 88.34% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 39,721.80 | 42,256.59 | 44,935.27 | 47,765.52 | 50,755.38 | 53,913.32 | 57,073.24 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.48% | 6.48% | 6.48% |
| Growth Rate | 3.26% | 4.26% | 5.26% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 39,303.53 | 39,684.16 | 40,064.78 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 38,874.22 | 39,630.80 | 40,394.66 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 38,434.92 | 39,562.40 | 40,711.72 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 37,986.63 | 39,479.62 | 41,016.19 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 37,530.29 | 39,383.08 | 41,308.33 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,140,923.56 | 1,197,248.45 | 1,255,776.20 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,333,053.16 | 1,394,988.50 | 1,459,271.88 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 4.61 | 4.61 | 4.61 |
| Fair Value | $288,895.26 | $302,317.70 | $316,249.00 |
| Upside / Downside | 125.52% | 136.00% | 146.88% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.77% | $1.48 | 22.19% |
| FUSB | First US Bancshares, Inc. | 1.76% | $0.25 | 26.72% |
| R | Ryder System, Inc. | 1.76% | $3.41 | 28.29% |
| RGA | Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated | 1.75% | $3.55 | 27.34% |
| TFG.AS | Tetragon Financial Group Limited | 1.75% | $0.30 | 3.32% |
| WFC | Wells Fargo & Company | 1.75% | $1.67 | 25.46% |
| HCKT | The Hackett Group, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.34 | 85.97% |
| LEG | Leggett & Platt, Incorporated | 1.74% | $0.19 | 11.94% |
| RPRX | Royalty Pharma plc | 1.74% | $0.67 | 49.36% |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.76 | 37.96% |
| SXT | Sensient Technologies Corporation | 1.74% | $1.63 | 50.00% |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | 1.73% | $3.09 | 52.31% |
| PRG | PROG Holdings, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.51 | 12.57% |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.53 | 26.88% |
| UFCS | United Fire Group, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.62 | 14.63% |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Financial Corp. | 1.72% | $0.55 | 16.32% |
| BK | The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | 1.72% | $2.01 | 27.06% |
| COWN | Cowen Inc. | 1.72% | $0.67 | 33.32% |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | 1.72% | $2.35 | 40.66% |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.73 | 59.04% |
| DTF | DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc. | 1.71% | $0.20 | 80.42% |
| ERIE | Erie Indemnity Company | 1.71% | $4.75 | 38.59% |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.68 | 17.01% |
| MTCH | Match Group, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.54 | 25.07% |
| LBRT | Liberty Energy Inc. | 1.70% | $0.32 | 28.43% |
| OVBC | Ohio Valley Banc Corp. | 1.70% | $0.67 | 28.36% |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial Corporation | 1.70% | $2.43 | 20.92% |
| BANF | BancFirst Corporation | 1.69% | $1.80 | 25.72% |
| BDL | Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.50 | 21.50% |
| CDHAX | Calvert International Responsible Idx A | 1.69% | $0.64 | 41.92% |
| CINR | Sisecam Resources LP | 1.69% | $0.34 | 19.21% |
| EXPO | Exponent, Inc. | 1.69% | $1.18 | 58.07% |
| GD | General Dynamics Corporation | 1.69% | $5.80 | 37.41% |
| HQI | HireQuest, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.18 | 36.36% |
| OTF | Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. | 1.69% | $0.24 | 9.20% |
| PHIN | PHINIA Inc. | 1.68% | $1.09 | 47.78% |
| PTRS | Partners Bancorp | 1.68% | $0.12 | 13.62% |
| RNGR | Ranger Energy Services, Inc. | 1.67% | $0.24 | 34.90% |
| HQH | Abrdn Healthcare Investors | 1.66% | $0.31 | 6.95% |
| JILL | J.Jill, Inc. | 1.66% | $0.23 | 10.45% |
| PSH.AS | Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | 1.65% | $0.85 | 6.48% |
| SKT | Tanger Inc. | 1.65% | $0.55 | 58.16% |
| USCB | USCB Financial Holdings, Inc. | 1.64% | $0.30 | 18.70% |
| BOTJ | Bank of the James Financial Group, Inc. | 1.62% | $0.30 | 26.41% |
| RS | Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | 1.62% | $4.78 | 34.66% |
| SCI | Service Corporation International | 1.62% | $1.25 | 33.57% |
| SMLP | Summit Midstream Partners, LP | 1.62% | $0.59 | 6.02% |
| TKR | The Timken Company | 1.62% | $1.40 | 32.90% |
| TRINL | Trinity Capital Inc. - 7.00% No | 1.62% | $0.41 | 20.50% |
| CARR | Carrier Global Corporation | 1.61% | $0.86 | 18.56% |