Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Allwinnertech Technology Co.,Ltd. (300458.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.42 - $23.19$13.03
Multi-Stage$7.16 - $7.83$7.49
Blended Fair Value$10.26
Current Price$51.82
Upside-80.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.05%1.65%0.120.120.210.160.120.120.010.060.040.03
YoY Growth--0.68%-42.68%29.25%33.74%0.00%1,097.14%-83.43%56.21%33.33%-71.43%
Dividend Yield--0.29%0.77%0.98%0.73%0.86%1.07%0.10%0.60%0.27%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)163.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)130.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.8436.7722.06
Cash Retained (M)130.41130.41130.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.84-36.77-22.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.5793.64108.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)833.64833.64833.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate4.30%5.30%6.30%
Fair Value$8.42$13.03$23.19
Upside / Downside-83.75%-74.86%-55.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294.20309.79326.21343.50361.70380.87392.30
Payout Ratio55.67%62.54%69.40%76.27%83.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)163.79193.74226.40261.98300.70342.79362.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate4.30%5.30%6.30%
Year 1 PV (M)178.02179.73181.43
Year 2 PV (M)191.16194.84198.56
Year 3 PV (M)203.25209.15215.17
Year 4 PV (M)214.36222.70231.28
Year 5 PV (M)224.54235.51246.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,956.185,198.385,449.95
Equity Value (M)5,967.516,240.316,523.30
Shares Outstanding (M)833.64833.64833.64
Fair Value$7.16$7.49$7.83
Upside / Downside-86.19%-85.55%-84.90%

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