Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $37,945.61 - $53,155.88 | $45,517.97 |
| Multi-Stage | $78,330.77 - $86,014.28 | $82,097.10 |
| Blended Fair Value | $63,807.53 | |
| Current Price | $319,500.00 | |
| Upside | -80.03% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -17.74% | -0.67% | 3,260.17 | 5,299.32 | 10,975.93 | 10,155.94 | 10,716.72 | 8,653.03 | 8,824.02 | 7,309.35 | 5,092.43 | 3,691.59 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -38.48% | -51.72% | 8.07% | -5.23% | 23.85% | -1.94% | 20.72% | 43.53% | 37.95% | 5.91% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.04% | 1.31% | 1.83% | 1.18% | 0.68% | 0.77% | 0.62% | 0.61% | 0.63% | 0.39% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 115,569.14 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 81,751.59 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 33,817.56 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 23,113.83 | 14,446.14 | 8,667.69 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 33,817.56 | 33,817.56 | 33,817.56 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -23,113.83 | -14,446.14 | -8,667.69 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 10,703.73 | 19,371.42 | 25,149.87 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 18.33 | 18.33 | 18.33 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 584.02 | 1,056.94 | 1,372.23 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 4,460.54 | 4,460.54 | 4,460.54 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 584.02 | 1,056.94 | 1,372.23 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5,044.55 | 5,517.48 | 5,832.76 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.33% | 8.33% | 8.33% |
| Growth Rate | -4.38% | -3.38% | -2.38% |
| Fair Value | $37,945.61 | $45,517.97 | $53,155.88 |
| Upside / Downside | -88.12% | -85.75% | -83.36% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 115,569.14 | 111,658.11 | 107,879.42 | 104,228.62 | 100,701.36 | 97,293.47 | 100,212.28 |
| Payout Ratio | 70.74% | 74.59% | 78.44% | 82.30% | 86.15% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 81,751.59 | 83,286.45 | 84,623.80 | 85,775.25 | 86,751.86 | 87,564.13 | 92,696.36 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.33% | 8.33% | 8.33% |
| Growth Rate | -4.38% | -3.38% | -2.38% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 76,088.40 | 76,884.17 | 77,679.94 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 70,628.61 | 72,113.68 | 73,614.20 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 65,402.48 | 67,476.06 | 69,593.01 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 60,430.35 | 62,998.33 | 65,647.30 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 55,724.56 | 58,700.13 | 61,801.48 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,107,352.41 | 1,166,482.69 | 1,228,112.37 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,435,626.81 | 1,504,655.06 | 1,576,448.30 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 18.33 | 18.33 | 18.33 |
| Fair Value | $78,330.77 | $82,097.10 | $86,014.28 |
| Upside / Downside | -75.48% | -74.30% | -73.08% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.77% | $1.48 | 22.19% |
| FUSB | First US Bancshares, Inc. | 1.76% | $0.25 | 26.72% |
| R | Ryder System, Inc. | 1.76% | $3.41 | 28.29% |
| RGA | Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated | 1.75% | $3.55 | 27.34% |
| TFG.AS | Tetragon Financial Group Limited | 1.75% | $0.30 | 3.32% |
| WFC | Wells Fargo & Company | 1.75% | $1.67 | 25.46% |
| HCKT | The Hackett Group, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.34 | 85.97% |
| LEG | Leggett & Platt, Incorporated | 1.74% | $0.19 | 11.94% |
| RPRX | Royalty Pharma plc | 1.74% | $0.67 | 49.36% |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.76 | 37.96% |
| SXT | Sensient Technologies Corporation | 1.74% | $1.63 | 50.00% |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | 1.73% | $3.09 | 52.31% |
| PRG | PROG Holdings, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.51 | 12.57% |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.53 | 26.88% |
| UFCS | United Fire Group, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.62 | 14.63% |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Financial Corp. | 1.72% | $0.55 | 16.32% |
| BK | The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | 1.72% | $2.01 | 27.06% |
| COWN | Cowen Inc. | 1.72% | $0.67 | 33.32% |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | 1.72% | $2.35 | 40.66% |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.73 | 59.04% |
| DTF | DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc. | 1.71% | $0.20 | 80.42% |
| ERIE | Erie Indemnity Company | 1.71% | $4.75 | 38.59% |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.68 | 17.01% |
| MTCH | Match Group, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.54 | 25.07% |
| LBRT | Liberty Energy Inc. | 1.70% | $0.32 | 28.43% |
| OVBC | Ohio Valley Banc Corp. | 1.70% | $0.67 | 28.36% |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial Corporation | 1.70% | $2.43 | 20.92% |
| BANF | BancFirst Corporation | 1.69% | $1.80 | 25.72% |
| BDL | Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.50 | 21.50% |
| CDHAX | Calvert International Responsible Idx A | 1.69% | $0.64 | 41.92% |
| CINR | Sisecam Resources LP | 1.69% | $0.34 | 19.21% |
| EXPO | Exponent, Inc. | 1.69% | $1.18 | 58.07% |
| GD | General Dynamics Corporation | 1.69% | $5.80 | 37.41% |
| HQI | HireQuest, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.18 | 36.36% |
| OTF | Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. | 1.69% | $0.24 | 9.20% |
| PHIN | PHINIA Inc. | 1.68% | $1.09 | 47.78% |
| PTRS | Partners Bancorp | 1.68% | $0.12 | 13.62% |
| RNGR | Ranger Energy Services, Inc. | 1.67% | $0.24 | 34.90% |
| HQH | Abrdn Healthcare Investors | 1.66% | $0.31 | 6.95% |
| JILL | J.Jill, Inc. | 1.66% | $0.23 | 10.45% |
| PSH.AS | Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | 1.65% | $0.85 | 6.48% |
| SKT | Tanger Inc. | 1.65% | $0.55 | 58.16% |
| USCB | USCB Financial Holdings, Inc. | 1.64% | $0.30 | 18.70% |
| BOTJ | Bank of the James Financial Group, Inc. | 1.62% | $0.30 | 26.41% |
| RS | Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | 1.62% | $4.78 | 34.66% |
| SCI | Service Corporation International | 1.62% | $1.25 | 33.57% |
| SMLP | Summit Midstream Partners, LP | 1.62% | $0.59 | 6.02% |
| TKR | The Timken Company | 1.62% | $1.40 | 32.90% |
| TRINL | Trinity Capital Inc. - 7.00% No | 1.62% | $0.41 | 20.50% |
| CARR | Carrier Global Corporation | 1.61% | $0.86 | 18.56% |