Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $314,984.37 - $692,648.12 | $453,026.13 |
| Multi-Stage | $1,391,458.51 - $1,540,299.08 | $1,464,360.89 |
| Blended Fair Value | $958,693.51 | |
| Current Price | $216,000.00 | |
| Upside | 343.84% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -12.59% | 18.18% | 3,277.39 | 6,993.99 | 6,135.45 | 9,084.13 | 5,546.10 | 6,423.28 | 7,976.14 | 4,183.31 | 3,096.78 | 3,539.06 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -53.14% | 13.99% | -32.46% | 63.79% | -13.66% | -19.47% | 90.67% | 35.09% | -12.50% | 473.62% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.19% | 3.40% | 1.65% | 1.94% | 0.64% | 0.99% | 1.63% | 1.00% | 1.02% | 1.40% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 341,592.84 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 28,314.46 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 313,278.38 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 68,318.57 | 42,699.11 | 25,619.46 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 313,278.38 | 313,278.38 | 313,278.38 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -68,318.57 | -42,699.11 | -25,619.46 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 244,959.81 | 270,579.27 | 287,658.91 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 19.40 | 19.40 | 19.40 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 12,629.56 | 13,950.44 | 14,831.03 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1,459.83 | 1,459.83 | 1,459.83 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 12,629.56 | 13,950.44 | 14,831.03 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 14,089.39 | 15,410.27 | 16,290.86 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 0.83% | 0.83% | 0.83% |
| Growth Rate | -3.49% | -2.49% | -1.49% |
| Fair Value | $314,984.37 | $453,026.13 | $692,648.12 |
| Upside / Downside | 45.83% | 109.73% | 220.67% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 341,592.84 | 333,085.26 | 324,789.57 | 316,700.49 | 308,812.87 | 301,121.70 | 310,155.35 |
| Payout Ratio | 8.29% | 24.63% | 40.97% | 57.32% | 73.66% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 28,314.46 | 82,042.77 | 133,077.24 | 181,518.72 | 227,464.74 | 271,009.53 | 286,893.70 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 0.83% | 0.83% | 0.83% |
| Growth Rate | -3.49% | -2.49% | -1.49% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 80,535.88 | 81,370.36 | 82,204.85 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 128,233.64 | 130,904.83 | 133,603.57 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 171,699.37 | 177,092.15 | 182,596.68 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 211,208.04 | 220,098.92 | 229,267.59 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 247,018.81 | 260,084.43 | 273,697.17 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 26,149,685.72 | 27,532,827.08 | 28,973,886.00 |
| Equity Value (M) | 26,988,381.46 | 28,402,377.78 | 29,875,255.86 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 19.40 | 19.40 | 19.40 |
| Fair Value | $1,391,458.51 | $1,464,360.89 | $1,540,299.08 |
| Upside / Downside | 544.19% | 577.94% | 613.10% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.77% | $1.48 | 22.19% |
| FUSB | First US Bancshares, Inc. | 1.76% | $0.25 | 26.72% |
| R | Ryder System, Inc. | 1.76% | $3.41 | 28.29% |
| RGA | Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated | 1.75% | $3.55 | 27.34% |
| TFG.AS | Tetragon Financial Group Limited | 1.75% | $0.30 | 3.32% |
| WFC | Wells Fargo & Company | 1.75% | $1.67 | 25.46% |
| HCKT | The Hackett Group, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.34 | 85.97% |
| LEG | Leggett & Platt, Incorporated | 1.74% | $0.19 | 11.94% |
| RPRX | Royalty Pharma plc | 1.74% | $0.67 | 49.36% |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.76 | 37.96% |
| SXT | Sensient Technologies Corporation | 1.74% | $1.63 | 50.00% |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | 1.73% | $3.09 | 52.31% |
| PRG | PROG Holdings, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.51 | 12.57% |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.53 | 26.88% |
| UFCS | United Fire Group, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.62 | 14.63% |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Financial Corp. | 1.72% | $0.55 | 16.32% |
| BK | The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | 1.72% | $2.01 | 27.06% |
| COWN | Cowen Inc. | 1.72% | $0.67 | 33.32% |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | 1.72% | $2.35 | 40.66% |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.73 | 59.04% |
| DTF | DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc. | 1.71% | $0.20 | 80.42% |
| ERIE | Erie Indemnity Company | 1.71% | $4.75 | 38.59% |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.68 | 17.01% |
| MTCH | Match Group, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.54 | 25.07% |
| LBRT | Liberty Energy Inc. | 1.70% | $0.32 | 28.43% |
| OVBC | Ohio Valley Banc Corp. | 1.70% | $0.67 | 28.36% |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial Corporation | 1.70% | $2.43 | 20.92% |
| BANF | BancFirst Corporation | 1.69% | $1.80 | 25.72% |
| BDL | Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.50 | 21.50% |
| CDHAX | Calvert International Responsible Idx A | 1.69% | $0.64 | 41.92% |
| CINR | Sisecam Resources LP | 1.69% | $0.34 | 19.21% |
| EXPO | Exponent, Inc. | 1.69% | $1.18 | 58.07% |
| GD | General Dynamics Corporation | 1.69% | $5.80 | 37.41% |
| HQI | HireQuest, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.18 | 36.36% |
| OTF | Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. | 1.69% | $0.24 | 9.20% |
| PHIN | PHINIA Inc. | 1.68% | $1.09 | 47.78% |
| PTRS | Partners Bancorp | 1.68% | $0.12 | 13.62% |
| RNGR | Ranger Energy Services, Inc. | 1.67% | $0.24 | 34.90% |
| HQH | Abrdn Healthcare Investors | 1.66% | $0.31 | 6.95% |
| JILL | J.Jill, Inc. | 1.66% | $0.23 | 10.45% |
| PSH.AS | Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | 1.65% | $0.85 | 6.48% |
| SKT | Tanger Inc. | 1.65% | $0.55 | 58.16% |
| USCB | USCB Financial Holdings, Inc. | 1.64% | $0.30 | 18.70% |
| BOTJ | Bank of the James Financial Group, Inc. | 1.62% | $0.30 | 26.41% |
| RS | Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | 1.62% | $4.78 | 34.66% |
| SCI | Service Corporation International | 1.62% | $1.25 | 33.57% |
| SMLP | Summit Midstream Partners, LP | 1.62% | $0.59 | 6.02% |
| TKR | The Timken Company | 1.62% | $1.40 | 32.90% |
| TRINL | Trinity Capital Inc. - 7.00% No | 1.62% | $0.41 | 20.50% |
| CARR | Carrier Global Corporation | 1.61% | $0.86 | 18.56% |