Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $646.44 - $1,004.44 | $812.01 |
| Multi-Stage | $4,687.60 - $5,193.34 | $4,935.23 |
| Blended Fair Value | $2,873.62 | |
| Current Price | $4,390.00 | |
| Upside | -34.54% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -9.38% | 3.18% | 40.94 | 48.48 | 51.53 | 40.08 | 46.29 | 66.99 | 60.06 | 45.50 | 34.99 | 29.93 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -15.56% | -5.90% | 28.57% | -13.43% | -30.89% | 11.54% | 32.00% | 30.03% | 16.90% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.96% | 2.23% | 1.08% | 1.52% | 2.42% | 3.14% | 2.43% | 2.28% | 1.55% | 1.11% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,405.11 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,966.92 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 438.19 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 481.02 | 300.64 | 180.38 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 438.19 | 438.19 | 438.19 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -481.02 | -300.64 | -180.38 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -42.83 | 137.55 | 257.81 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 33.78 | 33.78 | 33.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -1.27 | 4.07 | 7.63 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 58.22 | 58.22 | 58.22 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -1.27 | 4.07 | 7.63 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 56.96 | 62.30 | 65.86 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 2.87% | 2.87% | 2.87% |
| Growth Rate | -5.46% | -4.46% | -3.46% |
| Fair Value | $646.44 | $812.01 | $1,004.44 |
| Upside / Downside | -85.27% | -81.50% | -77.12% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,405.11 | 2,297.77 | 2,195.23 | 2,097.26 | 2,003.66 | 1,914.24 | 1,971.66 |
| Payout Ratio | 81.78% | 83.42% | 85.07% | 86.71% | 88.36% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,966.92 | 1,916.91 | 1,867.45 | 1,818.58 | 1,770.36 | 1,722.81 | 1,823.79 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 2.87% | 2.87% | 2.87% |
| Growth Rate | -5.46% | -4.46% | -3.46% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,843.99 | 1,863.49 | 1,883.00 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,728.07 | 1,764.82 | 1,801.96 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,618.83 | 1,670.74 | 1,723.76 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,515.95 | 1,581.12 | 1,648.36 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,419.12 | 1,495.78 | 1,575.72 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 150,229.37 | 158,344.77 | 166,807.16 |
| Equity Value (M) | 158,355.32 | 166,720.72 | 175,439.96 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 33.78 | 33.78 | 33.78 |
| Fair Value | $4,687.60 | $4,935.23 | $5,193.34 |
| Upside / Downside | 6.78% | 12.42% | 18.30% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.77% | $1.48 | 22.19% |
| FUSB | First US Bancshares, Inc. | 1.76% | $0.25 | 26.72% |
| R | Ryder System, Inc. | 1.76% | $3.41 | 28.29% |
| RGA | Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated | 1.75% | $3.55 | 27.34% |
| TFG.AS | Tetragon Financial Group Limited | 1.75% | $0.30 | 3.32% |
| WFC | Wells Fargo & Company | 1.75% | $1.67 | 25.46% |
| HCKT | The Hackett Group, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.34 | 85.97% |
| LEG | Leggett & Platt, Incorporated | 1.74% | $0.19 | 11.94% |
| RPRX | Royalty Pharma plc | 1.74% | $0.67 | 49.36% |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. | 1.74% | $0.76 | 37.96% |
| SXT | Sensient Technologies Corporation | 1.74% | $1.63 | 50.00% |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | 1.73% | $3.09 | 52.31% |
| PRG | PROG Holdings, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.51 | 12.57% |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.53 | 26.88% |
| UFCS | United Fire Group, Inc. | 1.73% | $0.62 | 14.63% |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Financial Corp. | 1.72% | $0.55 | 16.32% |
| BK | The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | 1.72% | $2.01 | 27.06% |
| COWN | Cowen Inc. | 1.72% | $0.67 | 33.32% |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | 1.72% | $2.35 | 40.66% |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.73 | 59.04% |
| DTF | DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc. | 1.71% | $0.20 | 80.42% |
| ERIE | Erie Indemnity Company | 1.71% | $4.75 | 38.59% |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.68 | 17.01% |
| MTCH | Match Group, Inc. | 1.71% | $0.54 | 25.07% |
| LBRT | Liberty Energy Inc. | 1.70% | $0.32 | 28.43% |
| OVBC | Ohio Valley Banc Corp. | 1.70% | $0.67 | 28.36% |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial Corporation | 1.70% | $2.43 | 20.92% |
| BANF | BancFirst Corporation | 1.69% | $1.80 | 25.72% |
| BDL | Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.50 | 21.50% |
| CDHAX | Calvert International Responsible Idx A | 1.69% | $0.64 | 41.92% |
| CINR | Sisecam Resources LP | 1.69% | $0.34 | 19.21% |
| EXPO | Exponent, Inc. | 1.69% | $1.18 | 58.07% |
| GD | General Dynamics Corporation | 1.69% | $5.80 | 37.41% |
| HQI | HireQuest, Inc. | 1.69% | $0.18 | 36.36% |
| OTF | Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. | 1.69% | $0.24 | 9.20% |
| PHIN | PHINIA Inc. | 1.68% | $1.09 | 47.78% |
| PTRS | Partners Bancorp | 1.68% | $0.12 | 13.62% |
| RNGR | Ranger Energy Services, Inc. | 1.67% | $0.24 | 34.90% |
| HQH | Abrdn Healthcare Investors | 1.66% | $0.31 | 6.95% |
| JILL | J.Jill, Inc. | 1.66% | $0.23 | 10.45% |
| PSH.AS | Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | 1.65% | $0.85 | 6.48% |
| SKT | Tanger Inc. | 1.65% | $0.55 | 58.16% |
| USCB | USCB Financial Holdings, Inc. | 1.64% | $0.30 | 18.70% |
| BOTJ | Bank of the James Financial Group, Inc. | 1.62% | $0.30 | 26.41% |
| RS | Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | 1.62% | $4.78 | 34.66% |
| SCI | Service Corporation International | 1.62% | $1.25 | 33.57% |
| SMLP | Summit Midstream Partners, LP | 1.62% | $0.59 | 6.02% |
| TKR | The Timken Company | 1.62% | $1.40 | 32.90% |
| TRINL | Trinity Capital Inc. - 7.00% No | 1.62% | $0.41 | 20.50% |
| CARR | Carrier Global Corporation | 1.61% | $0.86 | 18.56% |