Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Aoyang Health Industry Co.ltd. (002172.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.35 - $0.51$0.42
Multi-Stage$2.80 - $3.12$2.95
Blended Fair Value$1.69
Current Price$4.06
Upside-58.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.07%-12.10%0.040.040.050.120.130.200.110.070.000.10
YoY Growth---5.53%-28.33%-56.17%-7.73%-34.44%92.01%51.70%0.00%-100.00%-21.70%
Dividend Yield--1.10%1.19%1.46%3.24%3.67%6.46%2.11%1.27%0.00%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.405.253.15
Cash Retained (M)22.3622.3622.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.40-5.25-3.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.9617.1119.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)890.72890.72890.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate0.29%0.29%0.29%
Growth Rate-9.59%-8.59%-7.59%
Fair Value$0.35$0.42$0.51
Upside / Downside-91.50%-89.54%-87.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.0038.3935.0932.0829.3226.8127.61
Payout Ratio46.77%55.41%64.06%72.71%81.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.6421.2722.4823.3223.8624.1325.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.29%0.29%0.29%
Growth Rate-9.59%-8.59%-7.59%
Year 1 PV (M)20.9821.2121.44
Year 2 PV (M)21.8622.3522.84
Year 3 PV (M)22.3723.1223.89
Year 4 PV (M)22.5723.5824.63
Year 5 PV (M)22.5023.7825.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,382.342,517.042,657.76
Equity Value (M)2,492.632,631.082,775.67
Shares Outstanding (M)890.72890.72890.72
Fair Value$2.80$2.95$3.12
Upside / Downside-31.07%-27.24%-23.25%

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