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Sonae, SGPS, S.A. (YSON.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.34 - $2.10$1.69
Multi-Stage$3.25 - $3.57$3.41
Blended Fair Value$2.55
Current Price$1.33
Upside91.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-12.26%0.00%0.080.080.050.050.090.160.070.040.000.00
YoY Growth---0.63%64.79%2.11%-45.23%-43.23%113.53%81.53%2,866.43%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.71%9.44%4.94%4.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)272.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.6034.1220.47
Cash Retained (M)108.12108.12108.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.60-34.12-20.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.5273.9987.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,946.951,946.951,946.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.34$1.69$2.10
Upside / Downside1.10%27.27%57.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)272.99270.26267.56264.88262.23259.61267.40
Payout Ratio60.40%66.32%72.24%78.16%84.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.87179.23193.28207.03220.48233.65247.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)167.10168.80170.51
Year 2 PV (M)168.00171.45174.93
Year 3 PV (M)167.78172.96178.26
Year 4 PV (M)166.59173.49180.61
Year 5 PV (M)164.59173.16182.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,486.825,772.536,070.02
Equity Value (M)6,320.876,632.396,956.41
Shares Outstanding (M)1,946.951,946.951,946.95
Fair Value$3.25$3.41$3.57
Upside / Downside144.10%156.13%168.64%

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