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United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.71 - $47.94$40.04
Multi-Stage$49.50 - $54.39$51.90
Blended Fair Value$45.97
Current Price$30.42
Upside51.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.07%-1.92%0.620.620.600.571.091.244.021.040.940.83
YoY Growth--0.30%1.92%5.28%-47.19%-12.66%-69.01%285.59%11.17%13.54%10.05%
Dividend Yield--2.10%2.82%2.28%1.85%3.12%3.82%9.18%2.18%2.19%1.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)95.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.2613.918.35
Cash Retained (M)95.0095.0095.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.26-13.91-8.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)72.7481.0986.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.2526.2526.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.773.093.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.773.093.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.393.713.92
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-1.15%-0.15%0.85%
Fair Value$32.71$40.04$47.94
Upside / Downside7.52%31.63%57.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.28111.11110.94110.78110.61110.44113.75
Payout Ratio14.63%29.70%44.78%59.85%74.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.2833.0149.6866.3082.8799.40105.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-1.15%-0.15%0.85%
Year 1 PV (M)29.9530.2530.56
Year 2 PV (M)40.9141.7442.58
Year 3 PV (M)49.5451.0652.61
Year 4 PV (M)56.1958.5060.88
Year 5 PV (M)61.1564.3167.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,061.651,116.451,173.48
Equity Value (M)1,299.391,362.311,427.70
Shares Outstanding (M)26.2526.2526.25
Fair Value$49.50$51.90$54.39
Upside / Downside62.72%70.60%78.79%

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