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First Bank (FRBA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.89 - $103.16$59.46
Multi-Stage$26.31 - $28.76$27.51
Blended Fair Value$43.49
Current Price$16.29
Upside166.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.25%0.00%0.240.210.190.120.090.090.090.040.000.00
YoY Growth--13.31%13.70%59.37%23.15%3.65%4.55%98.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.60%1.84%0.82%0.78%1.31%0.76%0.30%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.375.233.14
Cash Retained (M)35.8135.8135.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.37-5.23-3.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.4430.5832.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.2325.2325.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.091.211.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.091.211.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.89$59.46$103.16
Upside / Downside138.71%265.02%533.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.8344.5547.4550.5353.8257.3159.03
Payout Ratio14.40%29.52%44.64%59.76%74.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.0213.1521.1830.2040.3051.5854.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11.9412.0512.17
Year 2 PV (M)17.4617.8018.13
Year 3 PV (M)22.6123.2623.92
Year 4 PV (M)27.3928.4529.53
Year 5 PV (M)31.8433.3734.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)552.69579.38607.10
Equity Value (M)663.92694.31725.81
Shares Outstanding (M)25.2325.2325.23
Fair Value$26.31$27.51$28.76
Upside / Downside61.51%68.90%76.57%

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