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Kelsian Group Limited (CY4.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.92 - $82.32$77.14
Multi-Stage$12.85 - $14.04$13.43
Blended Fair Value$45.29
Current Price$3.73
Upside1,114.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS17.74%21.65%0.150.170.140.130.090.070.050.050.050.03
YoY Growth---13.23%26.89%6.32%39.13%38.92%23.12%0.12%7.42%79.09%32.34%
Dividend Yield--4.03%3.84%1.91%2.33%1.21%1.13%0.56%1.06%2.14%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)112.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.5014.068.44
Cash Retained (M)24.4524.4524.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.50-14.06-8.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.9510.3916.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)271.79271.79271.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.92$77.14$82.32
Upside / Downside943.36%1,968.21%2,106.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)112.50119.81127.60135.89144.73154.13158.76
Payout Ratio78.26%80.61%82.96%85.31%87.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.0596.58105.86115.93126.86138.72146.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)89.9290.7891.63
Year 2 PV (M)91.7693.5195.27
Year 3 PV (M)93.5696.2598.98
Year 4 PV (M)95.3298.99102.76
Year 5 PV (M)97.05101.74106.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,023.803,169.853,321.49
Equity Value (M)3,491.423,651.113,816.74
Shares Outstanding (M)271.79271.79271.79
Fair Value$12.85$13.43$14.04
Upside / Downside244.39%260.15%276.48%

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