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Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.31 - $29.23$24.66
Multi-Stage$33.99 - $37.27$35.60
Blended Fair Value$30.13
Current Price$22.25
Upside35.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202020192018201720162015201420132012
DPS0.00%0.00%0.820.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,181.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,139.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,042.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)436.40272.75163.65
Cash Retained (M)1,042.981,042.981,042.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-436.40-272.75-163.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)606.58770.23879.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)759.00759.00759.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.801.011.16
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.801.011.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.302.522.66
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.31$24.66$29.23
Upside / Downside-8.73%10.84%31.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,181.982,160.162,138.552,117.172,096.002,075.042,137.29
Payout Ratio52.20%59.76%67.32%74.88%82.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,139.001,290.921,439.681,585.341,727.941,867.531,976.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,171.311,183.261,195.22
Year 2 PV (M)1,185.261,209.571,234.13
Year 3 PV (M)1,184.251,220.881,258.25
Year 4 PV (M)1,171.191,219.731,269.76
Year 5 PV (M)1,148.521,208.331,270.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,938.2920,976.5222,057.56
Equity Value (M)25,798.8227,018.2928,285.52
Shares Outstanding (M)759.00759.00759.00
Fair Value$33.99$35.60$37.27
Upside / Downside52.77%59.99%67.49%

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