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Cielo S.A. (CIEL3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.46 - $6.37$5.40
Multi-Stage$9.76 - $10.72$10.23
Blended Fair Value$7.81
Current Price$5.65
Upside38.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-22.30%-3.29%0.440.360.220.080.631.560.820.510.530.74
YoY Growth--22.36%67.08%168.08%-87.21%-59.59%89.85%59.54%-3.02%-28.55%20.41%
Dividend Yield--8.13%8.15%8.01%2.67%17.82%20.97%5.81%3.30%3.37%4.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,826.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,334.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)492.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)365.23228.27136.96
Cash Retained (M)492.09492.09492.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-365.23-228.27-136.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.86263.82355.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,707.332,707.332,707.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate-3.93%-2.93%-1.93%
Fair Value$4.46$5.40$6.37
Upside / Downside-20.99%-4.46%12.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,826.161,772.671,720.741,670.331,621.391,573.891,621.11
Payout Ratio73.05%76.44%79.83%83.22%86.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,334.071,355.071,373.701,390.071,404.301,416.501,499.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate-3.93%-2.93%-1.93%
Year 1 PV (M)1,245.421,258.391,271.35
Year 2 PV (M)1,160.371,184.661,209.19
Year 3 PV (M)1,079.191,113.241,148.00
Year 4 PV (M)1,002.011,044.391,088.10
Year 5 PV (M)928.94978.301,029.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,996.6222,112.3823,275.07
Equity Value (M)26,412.5527,691.3529,021.45
Shares Outstanding (M)2,707.332,707.332,707.33
Fair Value$9.76$10.23$10.72
Upside / Downside72.67%81.03%89.73%

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