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Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.83 - $11.26$9.50
Multi-Stage$12.76 - $14.01$13.37
Blended Fair Value$11.44
Current Price$36.51
Upside-68.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.340.290.280.310.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--16.18%4.32%-9.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.15%0.81%1.30%1.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.085.673.40
Cash Retained (M)30.2530.2530.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.08-5.67-3.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.1724.5726.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.9740.9740.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.600.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.600.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.02
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.83$9.50$11.26
Upside / Downside-78.57%-73.97%-69.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45.3844.9344.4844.0443.5943.1644.45
Payout Ratio33.35%44.68%56.01%67.34%78.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.1420.0824.9129.6534.3038.8441.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)18.2218.4018.59
Year 2 PV (M)20.5120.9321.36
Year 3 PV (M)22.1522.8423.54
Year 4 PV (M)23.2524.2125.20
Year 5 PV (M)23.8925.1326.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)414.70436.29458.78
Equity Value (M)522.71547.80573.89
Shares Outstanding (M)40.9740.9740.97
Fair Value$12.76$13.37$14.01
Upside / Downside-65.05%-63.38%-61.63%

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